Zone de Texte: In Akcakavak station, first infection forecast was obtained after the index coefficient reached 140 with increase of 8 coefficients. But, in the field, first symptoms were determined before this date on July 14, 2005. The model gave us a very late warning related to disease outbreak in infection estimation. Ullrich-Schrodter did not give any warning at the Orencik Station while first disease symptoms were determined on July 2, 2005. Also, there was no warning at the Pasakoy station while first symptoms were seen on the same date.

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